A recent headline in the Wall Street Journal almost shouted “Copper Is 2025’s Hottest Commodity”, but in a volatile world staying number 1 can be tricky.
What triggered the very upbeat sentiment from the WSJ is the possibility the US will impose a tariff on imported copper as a way of stimulating domestic production.
Trump has mentioned copper as a target of tariffs and has ordered the Commerce Department to take an official look at copper imports. That investigation is expected to report back soon(ish).
What that will mean long term for the world, especially here in Australia, is still anyone’s guess, but in the interim American suppliers and domestic manufacturers are rushing to move copper into the country ahead of potential import taxes.
The US is in fact scouring the world for copper and pushing up prices as they do. They hit a record there recently and copper prices have soared 30% this year.
The WSJ said “Those are signs that a flood of copper is flowing out of warehouses around the world and headed stateside.” According to commodities giant Mercuria it’s about 500,000 tons of copper just this month when the standard monthly import is usually about 70,000 tons
China’s ongoing attempts to kick start their economy and Europe’s early signs of recovery all look good for long term copper demand. Even an organisation as reputable as the International Energy Agency said recently the world is expected to meet only 70% of global copper demand by 2035.
Anything could happen of course, and in my experience copper is always the subject of endless market rumours and speculation. Also unknown is what the impact of any possible China & US trade war could have.
What I do know is that the world’s hardest working metal is always in demand and that doesn’t look like changing any time soon.
Cheers, John Fennell