It takes an average 24.1 years to develop a copper mine from discovery to production, but lead times vary widely across the world says a new snapshot.
The study by S&P Global looked at 268 mines in 23 countries—including 13 mines in the US, 29 in Canada and 30 in Australia—and placed Australia 9th with an average lead time of 20 years to start producing copper.
The US proved to be the second longest, with development times of 29 years, only outdone by Zambia at 34 years. Canada was third slowest at 27 years while Laos was the world’s fastest at roughly 10 years.
Almost 12 years of this is typically spent in the stages of discovery, exploration, and the various studies required to confirm deposit strength and then get approvals in place.
But some countries face more hurdles than others. The US proved highly uncertain where even if they receive all required permits are subject to higher litigation risk, whereas in Australia and Canada mines do “reliably enter production”.
Uncertainty and litigation risk may explain why exploration budgets committed by investors to Canada and Australia over the last 15 years have been 81% and 57% higher than to the US despite the three countries have similar levels of resources.
Mining accounts for larger shares of gross domestic product and employment in Canada and Australia so there may be more political will to bring projects online says S&P. For example Canada and Australia have dedicated ministerial offices for mining while the US does not.
Since 2002 only three mines have come online in the US and none were located on federal lands, where the permitting process is more complicated and litigation risk higher.
Study: https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/pdf/0724/SPGlobal_NMA_DevelopmentTimesUSinPerspective_June_2024.pdf