I and a lot of other people were surprised by a new study showing that world copper demand has been widely-and significantly-underestimated.
The 1st Edition of the Copper Demand To 2035 report showed that world total copper consumption might exceed 43Mt by 2035. That means every person on the planet will use 5.0kgs of copper a year by then.
In fact the report calculates world consumption was already 30Mt last year or 4 kgs per head. It’s a staggering upgrade on the roughly 23Mt use in 2018 that’s largely been quoted till now.
The new study by Roskill is by far the most comprehensive so far covering the period 2014-2018. It’s built upon a production, trade and consumption platform of the eleven main markets for semi-manufactures in copper and copper alloys.
One of the key changes is the scrap market. By analysing wire rod and drawn wire, tubes and pipes, plate, sheet, strip and foil, rods, bars, sections and castings individually, it found a significant under-assessment in the volumes of direct use scrap used by fabricators.
It also suggests recycling rates and sustainability are much better than previously estimated. Making copper a greener, more sustainable metal than previously thought.
While electric cars will account for between 3.1-4.0Mt of net growth by 2035, other factors will drive growth. Namely population and GDP growth, urbanisation and electricity demand will dominate.
Roskill still gives China a leading role, but says an industrialising South East Asia & India will increasingly impact demand.
The picture for copper was already looking bright, but this new study suggests copper’s remarkable story is even bigger-from Bronze Age to Space Age indeed.
Check it out here: https://roskill.com/market-report/copper-demand-to-2035/
Cheers, John Fennell