Copper slips from a midday high of US$14,741/t to US$14,436/t as hot US inflation offsets Chile supply risk
Copper: US$14,741/t LME official, US$14,436/t LME close, US$14.57/kg on COMEX
LME copper set an official cash price of US$14,741/t at midday on 14 October. It then sold off after a hotter US inflation print lifted the dollar, and the three-month contract closed at US$14,436/t, down 0.8% on the day. It remains about 1.3% above the 1 October two-week low of US$14,253.50/t. COMEX fell 1.0% to US$14.57/kg on 14 October after a hotter US inflation print. It is roughly flat on the week, up about 3.8% on the month and up about 34% year on year.
Both benchmarks sit within about 2–3% of September’s records, including LME’s intraday high of US$14,875/t on 10 September. Chilean supply risk at Centinela and El Teniente is holding the floor, though a strike at Escondida has been averted. A stronger dollar and renewed Fed-hike bets are capping the upside.
LME official price set at midday London time; closing price at the end of trading, 14 October.
LME Week preview (London, 19–23 October)
The industry meets in London next week with copper near record highs and concentrate terms at record lows. Five copper items to watch:
- 2027 TC/RCs: The 2026 benchmark settled at US$0/t and 0¢/lb. Talks on 2027 terms are expected to dominate meetings.
- 2027 cathode premiums: Aurubis has raised its 2027 premium for European customers to US$347/t. Other producers typically set theirs during the week.
- Market structure: LME stocks are at a six-week low of 233,025 t, and cash closed US$97/t over three-month on 8 October. Copper position limits under the new regime are 18,000 lots in the spot month and 25,000 in other months.
- Industry voice: The ICSG speaks at the Wednesday 21 October base metals morning. The ICA Copper Industry Leaders Forum on Thursday 22 October brings producer CEOs together on demand, traceability and recycling.
- Fixed dates: LME Metals Seminar, Monday 19 October (QEII Centre). LME Dinner, Tuesday 20 October.
Market overview
Visible stocks are tight outside the US and swollen inside it. LME warehouses hold 233,025 t after outflows from Taiwan and Hong Kong, while COMEX holds a record 711,609 t. SHFE stocks rebuilt to 58,744 t after Golden Week, about 20,000 t above late September’s low.
Physical premiums confirm Chinese appetite. The Yangshan premium reached US$135/t, a four-year high, as China returned from its holiday. The LME nearby spread remains in backwardation, so buyers are still paying up for prompt metal.
China’s September customs data, released this week, show concentrate imports of 2.48 Mt, down 4.1% year on year. Unwrought copper and semis imports were 461 kt, down 4.9%. Year-to-date concentrate imports are down 2.9%, consistent with the TC squeeze.
Macro themes
- September CPI rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, with core at 2.6%. Bloomberg reported Treasuries and stocks falling and the dollar rising on the print. The dollar index reached 102.9, its highest since April 2025, and October hike odds rose to about 42% from below 20%. The FOMC meets 27–28 October. Higher rates raise the cost of carrying the US stockpile and weigh on speculative length.
China. Trade data were strong: September exports rose 36.3% year on year in dollar terms and imports rose 31%. The official manufacturing PMI returned to expansion at 50.1 in September. Demand is firm at the margin rather than booming; the ICSG sees China’s apparent usage up 2.5% in 2026, with the rest of the world broadly flat.
- Eurozone inflation reached 3.8% in September. The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on 10 September, and a Reuters poll expects a hold on 29 October and a hike in December. On supply, the Commission’s consultation on approvals for scrap exports to non-OECD countries closes on 16 October, with restrictions from May 2027. EU fabricators have been lobbying for copper scrap curbs since 2025.
Impact of US tariffs
Refined cathode remains tariff-free, but the threat still shapes trade flows. The April proclamation set a phased refined-copper tariff of 15% in 2027 and 30% in 2028, subject to a presidential decision after Commerce’s 30 June update. The implied late-September decision window passed without an announcement.
- Arbitrage: COMEX at US$14.57/kg (about US$14,570/t) is about US$135/t above LME, close to parity. The gap was about US$420/t at end-July.
- Stranded metal: COMEX stocks are a record 711,609 t. Goldman sees total US inventories rising about 900 kt in 2026 to roughly 1.8 Mt.
- Two-sided risk: Morgan Stanley expects confirmation to accelerate US inflows and lift both benchmarks; a further delay would be modestly negative.
- Knock-on to China: China’s cathode imports fell 20% year on year in August as Chilean and DRC metal was diverted to the US.
Supply and demand outlook
Forecasters agree that ex-US supply is tight but split on the global refined balance. The ICSG, which met this week, now sees a 104 kt refined surplus in 2026 widening to 368 kt in 2027, as new smelters in Indonesia, India and the EU outpace usage growth. Wood Mackenzie also sees a slight 2026 surplus. Goldman, by contrast, models a 640 kt deficit outside the US because US stockpiling has drawn metal away from the rest of the world.
Mine supply is the binding constraint. Morgan Stanley now expects flat or lower 2026 mine output, the first annual fall since 2017, and Chile mined 3.2 Mt in January–August, down 8%. This week’s disruptions:
- Escondida: Strike averted. On 14 October, about 64% of the 1,020-member supervisors’ union approved a new 36-month contract, removing the near-term risk at the world’s largest copper mine.
- Centinela: Antofagasta’s workers have been on strike since 7 October.
- El Teniente: A landslide killed two workers and halted part of Codelco’s operation.
|
Source (date) |
Refined balance |
Price view (LME) |
| ICSG (Oct 2026) | Surplus 104 kt (2026), 368 kt (2027) | No price forecast |
| Wood Mackenzie (Aug 2026) | Slight surplus 2026 | Supported by US tariff inflows |
| Goldman Sachs (Jun 2026) | Ex-US deficit 640 kt (2026), 170 kt (2027) | End-2026 US$13,735/t; 2027 avg US$13,800/t |
| Morgan Stanley (Jul–Sep 2026) | Mine supply flat to lower | Q4 US$14,250/t; reported US$14,500/t by year-end |
| J.P. Morgan (Aug 2026) | Global refined market well supplied | Q4 2026 US$14,800/t; 2027 avg US$13,800/t |
| Trading Economics model | — | End-Q4 US$15.01/kg (about US$15,010/t) |
Latest news
Resourcing Tomorrow’s October briefing shows investors and governments moving behind new supply:
- Copper capital: More than US$3.5 billion of equity, debt and small acquisitions has been announced in copper so far this quarter, on the back of a gain of about 14% in the price this year.
- Oman: Under Vision 2040, Oman aims to lift mining from 1.4% to 10% of GDP. Projects include the US$450 million Mazoon copper project and a planned US$419 million bulk materials port at Al Shuwaymiyah.
- EU: The EU has named 47 more strategic projects under the Critical Raw Materials Act. The Commission’s Critical Raw Materials Centre says it will work with all parties to get them into production as soon as possible.
ConnectOre – A new technology update
A digital twin for water
Every copper mine reconciles its water eventually; a digital twin does it continuously. A site-wide water balance covers dewatering, seepage, evaporation, tailings and rainfall. It is usually rebuilt periodically from hydrology, tailings, processing and climate systems that do not talk to each other, so by the time it reconciles, the season has moved. A twin closes that lag: sensors feed a live model, and the forecast changes today’s pumping and discharge decisions.
The stakes are high. Around 50–55% of upstream copper production sits in high or extreme water-stress jurisdictions, and Escondida has run on 100% desalinated seawater since 2020. Fusing satellite, UAV and ground sensing turns evaporation and seepage, the softest numbers in the balance, into measurements.
- Available now: IoT flow, level, seepage and pore-pressure networks, plus thickener and tailings twins that recover more water and lift throughput. BHP runs twins at Escondida, Copper South Australia and BMA.
- Evolving: Site-wide water twins, tailings-dam early-warning twins using satellite radar and machine learning, and live water balances used as licence evidence.
- Emerging: Catchment-scale twins shared across operators, regulators and communities. BHP has committed to a regional water data-sharing solution in the Pilbara, and CSIRO is applying deep learning to data-sparse catchments.
Go to the ConnectOre website for a full briefing: connectore.org
Sources
- Trading Economics, Copper price and forecast (14 Oct 2026)
- LME, LME Copper three-month close (14 Oct 2026)
- LME, LME Week 2026; LME, Position surveillance and limits
- Fastmarkets, Base metals head to LME Week 2026 (15 Oct 2026)
- MMTA, What’s on where in LME Week 2026
- Reuters via Business Recorder, Copper heads for weekly gain
- SMM, China September copper concentrate imports; SMM, GAC first three quarters metals trade; SMM, China exports September
- BLS, CPI September 2026; Bloomberg, US CPI live blog (14 Oct 2026); FXStreet, Dollar index after CPI
- Reuters poll via Global Banking & Finance Review, ECB outlook (8 Oct 2026); Finnovate, EU scrap export proposal
- Congressional Research Service, Section 232 tariffs on copper; Investing.com, Morgan Stanley on tariff decision
- Reuters via Mining.com.au, ICSG forecast (14 Oct 2026); IndexBox, ICSG detail
- Wood Mackenzie, Mid-year review (Aug 2026)
- The Globe and Mail, Goldman Sachs raises copper forecast; Scottsdale Mint, Goldman targets
- Morgan Stanley Research, 24 Jul 2026 (as posted); BigGo Finance, Morgan Stanley mine supply view
- J.P. Morgan, Metals outlook
- Rio Times, Escondida strike; IndexBox, Escondida last-minute talks; Options Trading Report, Centinela strike; Mitrade, El Teniente
- ConnectOre, Copper weekly brief 2 October 2026
- Resourcing Tomorrow, October 2026 newsletter
- SMM, Escondida union approves new three-year contract (15 Oct 2026); SMM, Copper morning meeting summary (15 Oct 2026)
