Copper ended the week near historically high levels as tight mine supply, falling exchange stocks outside the United States and resilient electrification demand continued to support the market. Against that, the Iran war, tariff uncertainty and uneven regional growth kept sentiment volatile and reinforced the view that copper is being driven by both structural tightness and short-term macro risk.
Market setting
Copper remained firm through the week ending 24 July, although trading stayed within a consolidation range rather than resuming the sharp rally seen earlier in 2026. Trading Economics showed copper at about US$13.85/kg, equivalent to roughly US$13,850/t, on 24 July, while the ICAA website listed “Copper Today” at US$13,895/t on 23 July, keeping prices close to the elevated range that has defined much of July.
The broad tone remains constructive, but not one-directional. Copper is still supported by constrained supply and durable long-term demand linked to power networks, electrification and digital infrastructure, but price action is being tempered by geopolitics, energy costs and trade-policy distortions.
Macro pressure
The Iran war has added a fresh macro headwind to industrial metals by increasing energy risk and weakening confidence around near-term industrial growth. The direct effect on copper has been less dramatic than in oil markets, but the broader consequence is still important: higher energy costs can weigh on manufacturing and processing activity even while supply-side concerns keep metal markets fundamentally tight.
Wood Mackenzie’s mid-year outlook says 2026 has been defined by “twists, turns and transitions” and expects that pattern to continue through the second half, with geopolitics and cautious investment remaining central themes for metals and mining. That framing fits copper particularly well this week, as the market continues to trade on both strategic scarcity and macro fragility at the same time.
Regional signals
The United States remains the clearest source of market distortion. Reuters reported earlier that tariff expectations drove Comex copper sharply above the LME benchmark, while UBS says continuing uncertainty around Section 232 tariffs is still drawing material into the US and tightening availability elsewhere. As a result, copper pricing is still reflecting policy risk and inventory relocation as much as underlying consumption.
China remains mixed rather than decisively weak, which is still broadly supportive for copper. UBS says Chinese demand has improved from a slow start to the year, reflected in declining SHFE inventories and stronger willingness to pay for imports, though import trends remain uneven and softer GDP data show the recovery is incomplete. Wood Mackenzie similarly argues that China’s demand is softening quietly rather than catastrophically, which is a more constructive interpretation for copper than a straight downturn narrative.
Chile, meanwhile, continues to anchor the supply-side story. UBS says Chilean copper output fell 8.8 percent year on year to 2.04 million tonnes in the January to May period, reinforcing the wider market concern that global mine supply is not responding quickly enough to stronger long-run demand.
Price structure
Copper remains high in both historical and strategic terms. Trading Economics showed pricing at about US$13.85/kg or US$13,850/t on 24 July, while the ICAA site showed US$13,895/t one day earlier using LME official prices. That keeps copper well above long-run norms and consistent with the elevated levels highlighted in recent weekly briefs on copper.com.au.
Cross-market spreads remain critical to understanding current price behaviour. UBS says the COMEX-LME spread widened again from late June to around US$450/t, after earlier peaking above US$2,900/t during the height of tariff-driven stress. That premium continues to incentivise copper flows into the US and helps explain why inventories outside the American market remain comparatively tight.
Supply and demand
The core supply-demand picture still points to a structurally tight market. UBS says it expects a global refined copper deficit of 520,000 tonnes in 2026, with demand still outpacing supply despite cyclical macro headwinds. The same note says SHFE inventories have fallen by 258,870 tonnes since end-March and LME inventories are also lower, even as COMEX stocks have risen strongly in anticipation of tariffs.
Mine supply remains the principal constraint. UBS says lower Chilean production and extremely weak concentrate treatment charges in China underline how strained the concentrate market has become, while Wood Mackenzie says years of underinvestment, declining ore grades and long project lead times continue to limit supply responsiveness even at high prices. Wood Mackenzie also argues that the real bottleneck in 2026 is custom concentrate rather than mine supply alone, which helps explain why smelter margins and feed availability have become such important market signals.
Longer term, Wood Mackenzie sees copper demand as increasingly tied to structural themes rather than a standard commodity cycle. It points to electrification, power infrastructure and regional stock building as enduring supports for demand, even against a backdrop of softer macro data from China and elsewhere. That reinforces the idea that short-term volatility should be viewed within a market that still has a strong strategic demand base.
ConnectOre focus
ConnectOre remains highly relevant in this environment because the industry’s challenge is no longer just to find copper, but to deliver it faster, more efficiently and with lower emissions. As the ICAA website states, the platform aggregates knowledge and provides insights on technology and emerging research to help address key industry challenges, including zero-emission mining. In a market defined by supply constraints and rising strategic demand, that makes ConnectOre a practical platform for accelerating innovation, collaboration and better project outcomes across the copper ecosystem.
Go to: https://connectore.org
