International Copper Association Australia

Copper Weekly Brief – Week Ending 25 September 2026

John Fennell

 

Market Overview

Copper climbed back to record territory this week, then eased as the Federal Reserve outlook took over. The rebound followed a sharp mid-month correction. On 14 September, LME three-month copper dropped to a session low of US$14,018.50/t, its weakest level since 20 August. It later touched US$13,958/t (US$13.96/kg), about 6% below the 10 September record of US$14,875/t (US$14.88/kg). That dip drew buyers. By 18 September the metal was heading for its 11th weekly gain in 12 weeks, as renewed Chinese demand outweighed hawkish Fed messaging.

The rally continued into this week. Prices rose for a sixth straight session on Tuesday 22 September, driven by tight mine supply and Chinese buying. COMEX reached an all-time high equivalent to about US$15,060/t (US$15.06/kg). On Wednesday, copper fell as much as 0.8% on the LME, ending the six-day run as Fed officials signalled concern about inflation and the possibility of further tightening. COMEX closed Wednesday near US$14,860/t (US$14.86/kg), still almost 42% higher than a year earlier.

Macro and Policy Themes

The US tariff decision on refined copper is still the largest unresolved variable. The Commerce Department has proposed duties of 15% from January 2027 and 30% from 2028, and these still await a presidential decision. The January start date matters now. As year-end nears, importers must choose between pulling metal into the US ahead of the tariffs or holding back. That choice will keep affecting COMEX premiums and inventory flows.

Interest rates are the second pressure point. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said inflationary shocks could take time to fade, and other officials have also suggested more tightening may be needed. A firmer US dollar has capped each recent rally. For Australian producers, however, the A$ copper price remains historically high, which supports margins.

Inventories

Exchange stocks point to tightness where physical demand is strongest. On 22 September, LME stocks fell 1,625 t to 254,250 t, and spot traded slightly above three-month metal. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse stocks are down about 70% since early June. Only 133,725 t of LME metal is freely available, with cancelled warrants making up 48% of the total. COMEX stocks, by contrast, continue to build on tariff-driven accumulation, so headline global inventory figures overstate how much metal is available.

 

China

Chinese demand has strengthened ahead of the National Day holiday. The Yangshan import premium finished last week at US$124/t, its highest in almost four years, then eased to US$119/t on Monday. Much of the newly imported metal is going straight to fabricators instead of warehouses, which keeps spot supply tight. Several Chinese refineries have planned maintenance between October and November, so refined output is unlikely to rise sharply. The main near-term risk is that buyers pull back after the holiday if prices stay near record levels.

Prices: Analyst Outlook

Organisation Outlook
Goldman Sachs US$13,735/t (US$13.74/kg) by end-2026
Morgan Stanley ~600,000 t deficit in 2027
Wood Mackenzie US$13,200–13,800/t (US$13.20–13.80/kg)
CRU Close to balance, excluding US stock movements
Trading Economics ~US$14,620/t (US$14.62/kg) by end-Q3

Most institutional forecasts sit below current spot prices. This suggests the market is still carrying a premium for policy and supply risk. That premium could narrow quickly if the tariff decision is clarified or the Fed turns more hawkish.

Supply and Demand Outlook

The supply side is not improving. Sprott expects global mined output to fall this year for the first time since 2017, despite record prices. Global mine production declined 1.1% in the first half, and disruptions in Indonesia and the DRC have removed an estimated 600,000 t from expected annual output. Benchmark treatment and refining charges are at zero for 2026, which keeps smelter margins under pressure. Demand from power grids, AI data centres and defence remains strong.

For the week ahead, the key signals are:

The medium-term balance still points to a deficit. In the short term, expect volatility around record levels rather than a steady move higher.

ConnectOre

Haulage Electrification – Did You Know?

Around 28,000 large haul trucks are in service worldwide, and almost all of them run on diesel. Diesel mobile equipment produces 30–50% of a mine’s Scope 1 emissions, and up to 80% at some sites. Yet the electricity to run a battery-electric truck costs about one-third as much as the diesel equivalent. As ore grades decline, haulage demand could grow 125% by 2050 without technology intervention. Industry collaboration has already pulled zero-emission haul trucks at scale forward to 2030, a decade earlier than expected.

The Truck Was Never the Hard Part

Drivetrains and truck platforms have matured, so the challenge has moved elsewhere. The constraints now sit in the wider system:

Battery cell chemistry determines how far and how fast a truck can work. The industry is now proving that no single operator can de-risk this alone. In December 2025, competitors BHP and Rio Tinto shared a trial site, supply chain and learnings with Caterpillar in the Pilbara. For smaller producers, pooling demand through consortia opens up technology that no mid-tier operator could reach on its own.

If you would like to see innovation spotlights on new cell chemistries, please refer to ConnectOre at https://connectore.org.

Sources

 

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