Market overview
Copper remains elevated but has moved into consolidation rather than fresh breakout mode heading into the end of June. LME official prices for 25 June were around 13,181–13,285 USD/t, equivalent to about 13.18–13.29 USD/kg, while COMEX has continued to trade at a premium to London, reflecting US tariff positioning and inventory reshuffling.
Reuters and Bloomberg both suggest the market is balancing two opposing forces: softer macro sentiment and still‑tight physical expectations. That is keeping copper volatile, but not weak.
Macro backdrop
The main macro issue remains uncertainty rather than outright demand destruction. Concerns around global growth, higher energy costs and geopolitical tension in the Middle East have weighed on sentiment, yet copper has held up because investors still see it as one of the clearest medium‑term beneficiaries of grid investment, electrification and data‑centre expansion.
US trade policy is also still distorting price signals. Reuters reports that while tariffs have already been applied to some copper products, refined copper remains outside the current regime, leaving the market focused on whether Washington eventually extends measures further into the value chain. That policy uncertainty continues to support the COMEX premium over LME.
Supply and demand
The broad market message is not one of immediate shortage, but nor is it one of comfort. Exchange inventories remain relatively high in aggregate, yet the market still appears uneasy about how much metal is truly available to meet demand in the right regions and at the right time.
That helps explain why prices remain historically strong even though some forecasters still see modest surpluses in 2026. Goldman Sachs has maintained a 2026 copper price forecast around 12,650 USD/t, while Morgan Stanley’s published base case is lower at 10,650 USD/t, with bullish cases still extending into the high‑12,000s. Taken together with broader market commentary, a reasonable consensus band for planning remains around 11.0–12.5 USD/kg, or 11,000–12,500 USD/t, with upside risk if policy or supply disruption intensifies.
Regional developments
Chile remains the most important regional story. On one hand, Anglo American and Codelco have finalised a joint mine plan for Los Bronces and Andina that is expected to unlock around 2.7 million tonnes of additional copper over 21 years, showing how incumbents are pursuing brownfield optimisation rather than relying only on greenfield discoveries. On the other, permitting remains a live constraint after a Chilean court annulled a key environmental permit tied to the Collahuasi expansion’s desalination infrastructure.
Africa continues to offer medium‑term growth potential, particularly through the central African copperbelt, but investors are still discounting delivery risk related to infrastructure, power reliability and sovereign settings. In other words, Africa matters to the long‑term supply story, but it is not yet enough to remove market tightness concerns.
Australian spotlight
For Australia, the more interesting theme is not a flood of new supply but smarter project design and operational competitiveness. One useful example is the Whim Creek redevelopment in Western Australia, which has been highlighted through ICAA’s Copper Map as a project combining ore sorting, sulphide flotation and bioleaching to improve recovery while lowering emissions intensity. That aligns well with the broader Roadmap to Zero narrative: Australian copper projects are increasingly being judged not only on grade and scale, but on carbon, water and processing efficiency as well.
Price outlook
The market still looks firm into the second half of 2026, but less one‑way than it did during the May surge. A practical base case is for copper to remain high by historical standards, with LME prices likely to trade around the low‑to‑mid 13 USD/kg range near term and institutional 2026 forecast averages still clustering closer to 11–12.5 USD/kg over a full‑year basis.
For industry participants, the key takeaway is that copper is still being priced as a strategic metal with macro sensitivity, not just as another cyclical industrial input. That should keep the market supported, even if the next few weeks are driven more by macro headlines and tariff developments than by a fresh shift in physical fundamentals.
ConnectOre
ConnectOre is ICAA’s digital platform for technology insights, project case studies and emerging research across the copper value chain, with a particular focus on zero-emissions mining and processing solutions. By combining member-contributed knowledge with its Copper AI engine, it is intended to shorten the path from innovation to deployment at mine and plant level.
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