Market Overview
Copper spent the week consolidating below the record set on 25 August, when COMEX futures touched the equivalent of US$14,770/t (US$14.77/kg) and LME three-month metal came within reach of January’s US$14,527.50/t high. The retreat gathered pace on Tuesday, 1 September, when a firmer US dollar and rising bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes hit industrial metals broadly; copper-linked equities fell 2–4% on the session. Bloomberg’s Wednesday read was that the rally had stalled as worries about the global economy resurfaced. By Friday the ICAA reference price stood at US$14,333 per tonne, or US$14.33 per kilogram, with COMEX trading in a range of roughly US$14,200–14,550/t (US$14.20–14.55/kg). Trading Economics records the metal down roughly 1.9% over the month but still up 47% year to date. The LME cash-to-three-month backwardation, which peaked near US$550/t in mid-August, has eased to the low hundreds as metal returned to exchange sheds. The correction is a repricing around policy and the dollar rather than any change in the physical story.
Macro Issues
The supply-side constraints carried over unchanged. Middle East disruption continues to restrict sulphuric acid supply to South American SX-EW producers; the DRC concentrate export ban is now in its third month; and Indonesia’s PT Smelting Gresik remains offline. Codelco’s half-year results, reported 28 August, framed the Chilean picture bluntly: first-half output fell 11% to 564,000 tonnes on operational restrictions at El Teniente, weaker grades at Ministro Hales and reduced Chuquicamata volumes, and the 1.33–1.36Mt 2026 guidance is now described as difficult to achieve. Pre-tax profit nonetheless rose to US$1.97 billion on a realised price of about US$14,400/t (US$14.40/kg), while cash costs climbed 7%. Reuters’ commodities desk notes that the LME zinc squeeze this week points to the same deepening Western supply risk visible in copper. The Economist and Financial Times continue to characterise 2026 as a year in which policy has become a first-order price variable alongside geology.
Macro and Regional Themes
The US Section 232 decision on refined cathode remains unresolved, and the market has moved from pricing a single announcement to pricing a probability distribution: CNBC and Reuters both describe the COMEX–LME spread as a live gauge of Washington’s next move. COMEX registered stocks sit near 675,000 tonnes after July’s record 200,000-tonne import surge. Against that, the net long position held by hedge funds and other speculators in COMEX copper futures is equivalent to roughly 912,000 tonnes of metal, according to FXEmpire. In other words, investors are betting on higher prices with more paper copper than there is physical copper in the exchange’s warehouses. That leaves positioning crowded and vulnerable to the kind of rate-driven sell-off seen on Tuesday, as leveraged holders are forced to exit at the same time. In China, cathode rod operating rates below 60% and a narrower Yangshan premium confirm that high prices are rationing demand at the margin, though grid investment and EV output remain the structural anchors. India has resumed talks with Zambia and is scouting Canada, Australia, Brazil and Indonesia for long-term supply, a reminder that the buyer base is diversifying. For Australian producers, the Australian dollar price remains historically elevated, sustaining strong margins and cash flows despite the week’s softer US dollar quote.
Copper to the World, Adelaide
Copper to the World 2026, held at the Adelaide Convention Centre on 2–3 September under the theme Powering the Future, brought together miners, METS suppliers, researchers, investors and government under Austmine and the South Australian Government. The opening keynote from BHP Copper South Australia asset president Anna Wiley, alongside ICA CEO Juan Ignacio Diaz and CRU’s Piers Montgomery, framed a demand story participants described as unique among the metals. The mood on the floor was one of considerable optimism. Delegates recognised the scale of the growth opportunity in AI and data centres, electric vehicles, renewable generation, storage and transmission, and the electrification of everything, and the corresponding need for new copper supply, faster project execution and technology adoption to meet it. Bloomberg Intelligence puts data-centre copper intensity at 27–33 tonnes per megawatt, implying 1.1–2.4Mt of additional North American demand by 2030 as global capacity doubles to around 80GW. Closer to home, Australian copper exports are forecast to rise from A$13 billion to A$18.3 billion by 2030–31, and BHP is targeting 500,000 tonnes a year from South Australia by the mid-2030s. The common thread across the two days was that copper underpins the health and wealth of future societies, and the industry’s task is to deliver it responsibly.
Prices: Supply and Demand
The analyst picture is little changed from last week, with the Trading Economics and Bloomberg Intelligence views added for this edition:
| Organisation | Outlook | Key driver |
| Goldman Sachs | US$13,735/t YE 2026; ~US$13,800/t 2027 avg | Lower mine supply; US stockpiling |
| Morgan Stanley | Deficit-led bull case; ~600,000t 2026 deficit | Mine disruption; tariff pull |
| Wood Mackenzie | US$13,200–13,800/t; demand +24% by 2035 | Supply disruption; electrification |
| CRU | Revised from surplus toward balance/deficit | US import pull; smelter cuts |
| Trading Economics | ~US$14,640/t Q3; ~US$15,940/t 12-month | Tariff front-loading; sulphur supply |
| Bloomberg Intelligence | +2Mt global demand by 2030 | Data centres 27–33 t/MW |
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley remain constructive on structural grounds, while shorter-dated technical calls, such as FXEmpire’s US$13,900/t (US$13.90/kg) September target, reflect the crowded COMEX position rather than any shift in fundamentals.
Supply and Demand Outlook
Treatment and refining charges remain at or below zero, smelter economics are strained, and the major growth projects at Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula and Andes Norte are 2028–2029 events. Against that, this week showed how quickly macro sentiment can override tightness in the short run. The practical read is unchanged: expect elevated volatility until the tariff question is settled and the Fed path is clearer, but the medium-term balance still leans toward deficit. The optimism voiced in Adelaide is grounded in that arithmetic.
ConnectOre
ConnectOre is ICAA’s digital knowledge platform, bringing together technology, research and practical industry insight from across the copper value chain. It supports collaboration on issues including zero-emission mining, processing efficiency, automation, water, tailings and sustainability themes already moving to the centre of sector strategy. After a week in which the industry gathered in Adelaide to talk about delivering the copper the future needs, that role is more relevant than ever: operational knowledge and technology adoption matter most when supply chains are tight, costs are rising and execution risk is increasing.
Go to: connectore.org
Sources
Bloomberg, “Copper’s Rally Stalls as Worries About Global Economy Resurface”, 2 September 2026; Bloomberg Intelligence, “Copper demand is set for data-center boost”
Reuters Commodities Desk via Investing.com and Mining Weekly (LME zinc squeeze, 3 September 2026; tariff threat analysis)
Trading Economics, Copper (4 September 2026); MINING.com (Codelco H1 results, 28 August 2026; LME warehouse squeeze)
The Rio Times, LatAm copper markets, 1–2 September 2026; FXEmpire, LME squeeze forecast; The Northern Miner (LME inventory)
InvestMETS and International Mining, Copper to the World 2026 (Austmine / Government of South Australia)
Goldman Sachs Research, Morgan Stanley, Wood Mackenzie, CRU, UBS, Citi, ICSG; Australian Financial Review, Financial Times, New York Times, The Economist; LME, COMEX, CNBC
ICAA Copper Weekly Brief, Week Ending 28 August 2026
