International Copper Association Australia · 9 October 2026
Copper: about US$14,400/t on COMEX, US$14,526/t on LME
Copper ended a choppy week firmer in London and flat in New York. Chinese buyers returned from Golden Week on 8 October, a day after a strike began at Chile’s Centinela mine. LME three-month traded up to US$14,646.50/t, its highest in nearly two weeks, before gains faded. The LME official cash price settled at US$14,526/t (US$14.53/kg) on 8 October, up 1.2% on the week and about 2% below September’s record. COMEX settled near US$6.53/lb, or US$14,400/t (US$14.40/kg). LME stocks fell 13,425 t over the week to 235,225 t. In Australian dollar terms, LME copper is around A$20,900/t.
Prices as at 8 October: LME official cash settlement and COMEX settlement.
Market overview
Three forces drove copper this week: softer US rate expectations, China’s return and Chilean strike risk. September US payrolls rose just 29,000, cutting bets on another Fed hike; markets now price about a 20% chance of a rise in October. Chinese buyers returned from the National Day holiday in a buying mood, and Shanghai copper rose 1.4% on reopening.
Nearby metal remains tight. The LME cash-to-three-month spread widened to a US$109/t backwardation on 8 October, meaning buyers are paying up for prompt delivery. Headwinds remain: Brent near US$100/bbl, US 10-year yields around 5.3% and soft Chinese industrial data.
US tariffs
There is still no White House decision on refined copper. The 50% Section 232 tariff on semi-finished products remains and cathode stays exempt. Commerce’s earlier proposal was 15% on refined copper from 2027, rising to 30% in 2028.
- Arbitrage: this year’s heavy US imports came with COMEX premiums of about US$400–500/t. COMEX is now trading slightly below LME, far too little to cover freight, insurance and financing, so new US-bound shipments have largely stalled.
- Stranded stocks: COMEX warehouses hold about 700,000 t. A rule-out would not release them quickly, because re-exporting is costly and Glencore expects US users to draw them down over time. The near-term effect would come mainly through weaker US import demand.
Supply: Chile in focus
- Centinela (Antofagasta): a legal strike began on 7 October after mediation failed. Unions say plants are still being fed but most mine movement has stopped, with output hit from November. Antofagasta says its 2026 plan is unchanged.
- Escondida (BHP): the supervisors’ strike is on hold while government mediation runs for five working days, extendable by five more.
- Chile overall: August output was the lowest since February 2011.
- Zambia: the waiver of its 10% concentrate export duty lapsed on 30 September.
Copper price and market balance forecasts
| Organisation | 2026 price (US$/t) | 2027 price (US$/t) | 2026 market balance | Key driver | Date of view |
| Trading Economics | ~14,640 (end-Q4) | ~15,720 (Oct 2027) | — | Model and analyst expectations | 7 Oct 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | 14,250 (Q4, LME) | Lower; softer US imports | ~600kt deficit | Mine disruption; tariff decision | 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | 13,735 (year-end) | ~13,800 (average) | 640kt deficit ex-US | Lower mine supply; US stockpiling | Jun 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | — | 22,050 (Q2 peak); 20,900 (average) | — | Inventory and liquidity squeeze; 18,500 avg in 2028 | 28 Sep 2026 |
| Wood Mackenzie | — | — | ~350kt deficit | Structural supply tightness | Carried from last week |
| Cochilco | ~13,120 (average) | ~11,240 (average) | 225kt surplus | Supply disruption; 2027 output recovery | Aug 2026 |
| ICSG | — | — | 150kt deficit | — | Carried from last week |
Our read. LME spot sits about 2% above Morgan Stanley’s Q4 target and about 6% above Goldman’s year-end call. Deutsche Bank is the outlier, implying roughly 50% upside by mid-2027. A prolonged Chilean strike is the clearest near-term upside risk; a US rule-out on refined tariffs remains the main downside.
LME: from disclosing sustainability to pricing it
The LME is laying the foundations to price sustainability, not just disclose it. Its October Sustainability Spotlight sets out two developments that matter for copper producers.
Sustainability premiums. CPAL, the LME’s Dubai-based sister company, is developing independent sustainability premium assessments for LME-listed metals. These would measure what buyers pay above the LME benchmark for metal that meets defined criteria: an LME-listed brand, sustainability data disclosed through LMEpassport, set carbon-intensity thresholds and recognised third-party standards. CPAL is candid that this will take time. Trading in sustainable metal is still concentrated in small segments, and premiums will only succeed if they reflect genuine commercial behaviour.
Copper traceability rules. The LME has confirmed three dates:
- 1 December 2026: warehouses must report metal data to LMEpassport when warrants are issued, not only on cancellation.
- 1 January 2028: all LME-listed copper must be accompanied by a Certificate of Analysis.
- 1 January 2030: copper for warranting must carry an indelible Production Cast Reference marking. Labels alone will no longer be accepted; either is allowed during 2028–29.
Why it matters for members. No copper sustainability premium exists yet. If one emerges, it will reward producers who can prove lower-emission, responsibly sourced production, and copper without those credentials could trade at a relative discount. Copper Mark-assured sites already meet the LME’s responsible sourcing requirements, as its Joint Due Diligence Standard is an approved Track A standard; carbon thresholds would be a separate test. It is one of the drivers behind the global Copper Mark program, as well as ICAA’s Roadmap to Zero research and the ConnectOre platform.
AI Supporting Copper Discovery
The next mine may be hiding in decades of old drill data. AI reads all the data at once and helps geologists rank drill targets. Mingomba, one of the biggest copper finds in years, proved it works, but every target still has to be drilled.
AI in exploration: did you know?
- The discovery rate for economic deposits has halved in a decade, while average cost has risen fourfold to about US$220 million.
- Mines that started up in 2020–23 took almost 18 years from first exploration to production.
- About 50 deposits are found worldwide each year, half the pre-2005 rate. Australia makes 12–15 discoveries a year, down from 15–25.
- Juniors carry about 45% of exploration spend but make 73% of Australian discoveries.
- Conventional greenfield drilling succeeds less than 1% of the time.
The data was always there. Australia has filed every drill result and survey since the 1970s. AI’s edge is reading it all at once and turning a continent into a ranked list of targets. A model is still a hypothesis until the drill confirms it.
From data to drill target
- Available: KoBold read legacy Copperbelt data to define Mingomba, a US$2.3bn mine targeting over 300,000 t of copper a year. National-scale models cut search areas by up to 95%.
- Evolving: Adelaide’s Fleet Space fuses satellites, seismic sensors and machine learning into real-time 3D subsurface imaging, used by Rio Tinto and Barrick.
- Emerging: agentic exploration that chooses the next survey, and pre-competitive data commons, the training-set bottleneck.
Who is solving it?
| Category | Organisations |
| AI explorers | KoBold Metals · Earth AI · VerAI · GoldSpot · MineDSS |
| Australian innovators | Fleet Space · Legacy Minerals · MinEx CRC · Unearthed |
| Majors and partners | BHP · Rio Tinto · Barrick · Midnight Sun |
| Research and data | CSIRO · Geoscience Australia · State geological surveys |
Read the full ConnectOre Pulse briefing at connectore.org.
Sources
- LME, Sustainability Spotlight — October 2026
- Westmetall, LME copper official prices and stocks (8 Oct 2026)
- Metalcharts, COMEX copper price (8 Oct 2026)
- Trading Economics, Copper price and news
- Reuters via Business Recorder, Copper rallies on mine supply fears, China’s return from holiday (8 Oct 2026)
- Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, Copper gains as China returns in positive mood (8 Oct 2026)
- Bloomberg via Bloomberg Línea, Copper gains as US jobs data offers relief (5 Oct 2026)
- The Rio Times, Copper fund slips as Centinela strike begins (8 Oct 2026)
- SP Angel, Market view, 8 October 2026
- The Rio Times, BHP pauses Escondida strike with five-day talks (5 Oct 2026)
- Reuters via Kitco, US tariff threat upends copper surplus (25 Aug 2026)
- Mining Reporters, US copper tariff, COMEX–LME spread and global market (May 2026)
- ING Think, What’s next for US copper import tariffs (12 Jun 2026)
- Morgan Stanley via Webull, Q4 LME target maintained
- Goldman Sachs via MiningNewsWire, Year-end forecast raised to US$13,735/t (9 Jun 2026)
- Bloomberg HT, Deutsche Bank copper forecast (28 Sep 2026)
- Industrial Info, Cochilco raises 2026 copper price forecast (18 Aug 2026)
- The Copper Mark, FAQs (LME Track A recognition)
- ICAA, Copper Weekly Brief — week ending 2 October 2026
- ConnectOre, Pulse briefing “AI found a copper mine” (2026); Wood Mackenzie and ICSG balances carried from last week’s brief
