Not so long ago copper exploration seemed to be in the doldrums, but with the world facing severe shortfalls it seems the race is on to find more deposits. And fast.
Just 2 years ago market analysts S&P Global said the 2023 world copper exploration budget was a third lower than it was in 2012, the lowest on record. They blamed a focus by the mining industry on existing or brownfield sites rather than “generative exploration that could yield brand-new discoveries.”
That seems to be changing. First of all we now face an unprecedented copper market imbalance, with demand expected to be around 33M to 50M tonnes by 2035, while supply from mines & recycling will be more like 27M tonnes. That’s a big gap to fill given we’ll need to grow supply by 750kt each year.
Secondly, geopolitical tension between China & the USA is transforming the copper market as they divide up world supply. America has also now put copper on its critical metals list & imposed tariffs on foreign imports as it seeks copper self sufficiency.
One of the outcomes of all that looks like a new era of copper discovery. The US already has over 25 copper projects in the construction, restarting, or permitting phases, but the Federal Government there has allocated nearly $1B to fast track critical minerals growth, including copper exploration.
It looks like being a similar story here too. The media is suddenly filled with stories about companies making promising copper finds, from North Copper’s big new discovery in Queensland to Altitude Minerals in NSW, AngloGold Ashanti’s $195M exploration commitment in WA, Litchfield Minerals biggest hit yet in the Northern Territory, and an exploration partnership between Havilah and Sandfire in South Australia. There are many, many more.
What’s likely to really help is new science. Exploration is being boosted by all sorts of innovative processes and technologies, including Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, smart software and advanced surveying techniques, exciting developments we surveyed in our 2024 Road Map to Net Zero Mining series.
Australia has the world’s second largest reserves of copper but is only the eighth-largest producer. That could be about to change.
Cheers, John Fennell.
