Copper Weekly Brief – Week Ending 20 February 2026
- Market overview
- Copper prices eased slightly this week, with benchmark contracts around US$5.75–5.80/lb (roughly US$12,600–12,800/t) on 18–19 February after record highs in late January.
- From the January peak near US$14,500/t, prices have pulled back about 11–13% but remain roughly 25% higher than a year ago.
- The pullback is being characterised as a consolidation following a speculative surge rather than a collapse in fundamentals, with inventory rebuilds and macro uncertainty (Fed rates, China data) driving near‑term caution.
- Strategy and outlook
- A major Australian bank has lifted its end‑2026 copper forecast from US$11,500/t to about US$13,500/t, and now expects copper to trade in a near‑term range of roughly US$12,500–13,500/t.
- Market commentary notes that copper is in a consolidation phase: much of the “good news” (energy transition, tariffs, stimulus expectations) is priced in, but the structural bull case remains intact.
- Technical and macro analyses continue to highlight structural supply deficits from the late‑2020s as mine investment lags demand from electrification, EVs and grid expansion.
- Major producer updates
- BHP has increased its FY26 copper production guidance to 1.9–2.0 Mt, citing strong operational performance and supportive prices, and reiterates a pathway to around 2 Mt of attributable copper in the 2030s.
- Rio Tinto reported an 8% year‑on‑year increase in copper‑equivalent production for 2025, with copper output up 11% to 883 kt, driven by the ramp‑up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine and broader portfolio performance.
- These updates reinforce the message that the diversified majors are leaning into copper, using tier‑one assets and technology to grow volumes into a structurally tightening market.
- Macro and regional themes
- Commentary this week links copper’s February consolidation to normalisation after a “parabolic” January rally, with visible inventories rebuilding from very low levels but not signalling demand collapse.
- There is increasing focus on policy risk (trade measures, tariffs) and monetary policy (Fed timing) as near‑term drivers of sentiment around what remains a tight underlying market.
- Regional analysis continues to flag major copper exporters (notably Peru and Chile) as key beneficiaries of elevated prices, with implications for capital flows and project prioritisation globally.
