The world’s copper market is expected to see a significant surplus over the next two years says the latest forecast from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG).
The Group said the global copper surplus would be about 289,000 tonnes in 2025, more than double the 138,000 tonnes from last year. This forecast also represents a larger surplus than its earlier projection of 194,000 tonnes.
The ICSG attributed the rise to higher mine supply and rising smelting capacity, Global mine production will jump by 2.3% to 23.5 million tonnes, benefiting mainly from the ramp-up of the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the DRC and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia.
The start up of several small and medium-sized mines will also contribute to the increase in global production, including in Brazil, Iran, Uzbekistan, Ecuador, Eritrea, Greece, Angola and Morocco.
Global uncertainty—most notably from the ongoing confusion and impact of US tariffs—will hit global growth and copper demand. Refined copper usage growth is down to 2.4% compared to its previous forecast of 2.7% and the 2.8% recorded in 2024.
Copper usage growth is expected to slow further to 1.8% in 2026, largely due to an anticipated loss of momentum in China, where copper usage growth is expected to shrink from 2% this year to just 0.8% next year.
Nothing is certain though as the ICSG acknowledged. The Group said demand drivers such as energy transition technology and data centres will continue to support copper usage, helping to offset some of the broader manufacturing hit from a prolonged trade war.
Detail: https://icsg.org/press-releases/
