Copper Weekly Brief — 22 October 2026 | International Copper Association Australia

Copper steadies near US$14,400/t as LME Week bulls meet rising stocks

Copper: US$14,357/t LME three-month and US$14,540/t LME cash (20 October settlement); US$14.46/kg on COMEX (21 October)

London’s three-month contract traded around US$14,364/t late on 21 October, down 0.4% on the day and about 3.4% below the 10 September record of US$14,875/t. COMEX settled at US$6.56/lb (about US$14.46/kg) on 21 October, little changed on the week. Copper is still up about 17% this year, but the conversation in London moved from scarcity to stocks as LME inventories rose 8% in a week.

The bigger shift is the spread between the two exchanges. COMEX now trades below LME, about US$80/t under LME cash, after carrying a premium of around US$420/t at the end of July on the threat of US tariffs. The Copper Journal’s John Gross calculates that the October average has flipped to an LME premium, from a COMEX premium in June. With the tariff decision stalled and more than 700,000 t sitting in COMEX warehouses, the US market is well supplied and the tariff premium has largely gone.

LME Week: the view from London

The metals world packed into London for LME Week (19–23 October), and the mood was confident. Delegates at Monday’s LME Metals Seminar at the QEII Centre voted copper the industrial metal with the best price outlook, and Goldman Sachs used the week to lift its year-end target. Not everyone was cheering: Macquarie’s Alice Fox told a briefing that copper is “way above where it ought to be given global stocks.” Behind the chatter, the exchange itself is in good health: trading volumes have boomed as its reform programme, launched after the nickel crisis, restored confidence.

What came out of the week:

Following the metal to America: The LME listed Owensboro, Kentucky as a Good Delivery Point for copper and approved new warehouses there and in New Orleans.
Physical reform: From 1 December warehouses must comply with an updated Warehouse Agreement. LME copper will also need a Certificate of Analysis and an indelible cast reference for traceability.
Green premium, zero for now: CPAL’s first sustainable copper assessment found buyers would pay nothing above the usual US$130–180/t Rotterdam premium. Low-carbon producers such as Montanwerke Brixlegg say the definition is too broad.
2027 premiums: Aurubis has set a record US$347/t European premium, up 10%, and producers are offering record premiums for next year’s physical deliveries.

Market overview

Stocks are rebuilding. LME available stocks reached a two-month high of 147,450 t on 20 October after 8,225 t flowed into US warehouses, and available tonnage is up 40% in a week. COMEX holds about 718,000 t, and SHFE stocks have climbed to about 74,000 t from 58,744 t in early October. A tech-stock selloff on 15 October briefly pushed three-month copper to a near two-week low of US$14,256/t before a weaker dollar helped it recover. Yet LME cash still sits about US$180/t over three-month, so prompt metal remains tight even as headline stocks rise.

Supply risk eased. Workers at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine ended the strike that began on 7 October, a week after Escondida’s supervisors approved a new contract.

Macro and regional themes

United States. The FOMC decides on 28 October, after September’s rate rise to 3.75–4.00% and a 3.7% CPI print. A further hike would lift the dollar and the cost of carrying the US stockpile. The refined copper tariff is still undecided. Deutsche Bank’s Daniel Ghali argues the threat reflects a wider national-security shift on critical minerals, and that freight costs would discourage large US re-exports even without a tariff.

China. Buyers are cautious at these prices, although the Yangshan import premium touched a four-year high of US$135/t last week. Rising SHFE stocks after Golden Week are the number to watch.

Europe. Record producer premiums reflect thin regional supply after heavy shipments to the US.

Australia. In local terms copper is worth about A$20,400/t, a strong backdrop for local producers. With AASB S2 now in force, their emissions data will be scrutinised alongside their earnings.

Supply and demand outlook

Banks are lifting targets even as physical indicators soften. Goldman Sachs now sees an ex-US deficit of 950 kt in 2026 and 220 kt in 2027. It also notes that the median mine takes more than 16 years from discovery to first production, so higher prices cannot quickly deliver new metal. Morgan Stanley warns that slower US stockpiling would make the global market look looser. The ICSG still expects refined surpluses, and Wood Mackenzie sees a slight surplus in 2026.

Source (date)	Refined balance	Price view (LME)
Goldman Sachs (Oct 2026)	Ex-US deficit 950 kt (2026), 220 kt (2027)	End-2026 US$14,700/t; 2027 avg US$15,400/t
Morgan Stanley (Oct 2026)	US stockpiling is the swing factor	Q4 US$14,250/t
Macquarie, BMO, BMI (Oct 2026)	—	2026 avg about US$13,500–13,600/t
ICSG (Oct 2026)	Surplus 104 kt (2026), 368 kt (2027)	No price forecast
Wood Mackenzie (Aug 2026)	Slight surplus 2026	Supported by US tariff inflows

Strategy and outlook

London left the industry bullish on the long run and more cautious on the next few weeks. We expect copper to hold a US$14,200–14,900/t range into November, with the 28 October FOMC decision and any US tariff announcement as the likely triggers for a break. Four signals to watch:

LME stock builds: further US-bound inflows would test the backwardation.
China: whether the Yangshan premium holds as SHFE stocks rise.
2027 terms: cathode premiums are settling at records, while 2027 TC/RC talks start from a 2026 benchmark of zero.
Tariff timing: a confirmed tariff would pull more metal into the US; a further delay could release some of the COMEX stockpile. The US midterm elections on 3 November add another layer. Reuters reported in September that the White House had stalled the decision over affordability concerns ahead of the vote, so a ruling may wait until after the polls.

ConnectOre – A new technology update

Report once, count everywhere

Mining’s reporting burden has been fragmentation: the same emissions reported many times over, to different standards on different cycles. That is changing. The ISSB has absorbed TCFD and SASB, Australia’s AASB S2 is now law, and GRI 14 has set a mine-site benchmark from January 2026. The task shifts from filling templates to financial-grade data, with governance, controls and assurance to match the annual accounts.

The collaboration proof point: the Copper Mark, ICMM, the Mining Association of Canada and the World Gold Council are merging four standards into one, covering close to 100 companies and 600 operations in 60 countries. Around 40% of mined copper already comes from Copper Mark-assured sites, and 259 sustainability reports were lodged with ASIC in the first mandatory wave.

Established: GHG Protocol, ISO 14064, NGER and ICMM’s Scope 3 guidance remain the measurement backbone.
Converging: AASB S2 Group 2 reporting from July 2026, with Scope 3 from year two, when value chain emissions can reach 95% of a miner’s footprint.
Emerging: TNFD and natural capital accounting, plus product-level carbon tools from COMET and CRU that make intensity comparable asset by asset.

Go to the ConnectOre website for a full briefing: connectore.org

Copper Weekly Brief — 22 October 2026

Copper Weekly Brief — 15 October 2026

Copper Weekly Brief — week ending 9 October 2026

Copper Weekly Brief — week ending 2 October 2026

LME Week: the view from London

Market overview

Macro and regional themes

Supply and demand outlook

Strategy and outlook

ConnectOre – A new technology update

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